Predictions of future developments aside, over the course of the species’ history so far humanity has managed to already develop many extremely effective methods of exterminating itself in internal conflicts which, if misused, could easily result in the annihilation of the race as a whole if not the extinction of all known life. One of the most often quoted and generally feared is that of nuclear holocaust, stemming from the development of the atom bomb at the end of World War II and the ensuring arms race between large national powers.
How Many Nuclear Weapons?
There are now more than enough nuclear weapons of varying types and magnitudes in existence to easily sterilise planet Earth. It is recognised that various dissident parties- so-called terrorists and other extremist groups- tend not to possess the necessary infrastructure in their territories to construct long-range nuclear devices and thus are incapable of bringing about a full-scale nuclear war, but this is far from a reassuring statement when considering the numerous almost-catastrophes that have arisen as a result of the main world powers with significantly larger nuclear arsenals at their command.
The Cuban Missile Crisis
By far the most widely-known incident of this type is the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, at the height of the Cold War, which stemmed almost directly from the ill-fated Bay of Pigs invasion the previous year. When Soviet missile installations were found by the United States to be under construction in Cuba on 15th October tensions between the two large nuclear powers rapidly escalated and could have exploded into open war if not for the careful negotiations of the two national leaders, President John Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev.
The crisis lasted for less than a fortnight but is widely regarded as a pivotal moment in human history since if the situation had been resolved in any way other than the way it actually was it is almost certain that there would have been nobody left to debate the outcome. Soviet General Anatoly Gribkov commented later that “Nuclear catastrophe was hanging by a thread...and we weren't counting days or hours, but minutes.”
Failsafe Systems
Since the Cuban Missile crisis and even after the end of the Cold War in 1989 with the breakup of the Soviet Union, the realisation dawned between the two main powers, America and Russia, that both their nuclear arsenals were capable of doing catastrophic damage to each other within a very short span of time, and so a series of increasingly intricate failsafe systems have been introduced to try and prevent the accidental ‘pressing the big red button’ to trigger nuclear missile launches. However in some ways these precautions have heightened the risk. A false alarm by one of the warning systems would cause an elevation in military readiness which in turn would raise the military readiness of the opposing forces and could easily snowball out of control into disaster.
Fictional Scenarios Meet Reality
Numerous science-fiction films have been made on this subject; two particularly pertinent examples are Failsafe (1964, Columbia Pictures) and the darkly comic Dr. Strangelove (also 1964, Hawk Films Ltd) which portray military failures leading to catastrophe. In Dr. Strangelove a US Air Force general goes insane and orders his bomber wing, armed with nuclear missiles, to destroy the USSR. The plot could be construed as ludicrously unlikely, but in fact only two years before the film’s release, in October 1962 at the height of the Cuban Crisis, the Commander-in-Chief of the United Kingdom’s Bomber Command, Air Marshall Cross, decided of his own volition to prolong a readiness exercise and then elevate the status of Britain’s nuclear forces so they could launch within fifteen minutes.
Given the already dangerous state of affairs in Cuba, it is highly possible that Soviet intelligence would have seen this measure as US and UK preparation for a co-ordinated nuclear attack. Luckily the crisis was resolved before matters could escalate, and British Bomber Command stood down their alert, but the Soviets had no way of knowing that Cross’ actions were completely unauthorised by the British Government. AM Cross was presumably acting in response to the Cuban Crisis, not because he had gone mad, but the incident is a clear indication of how precarious the nuclear situation could become.
Not Just Human Error
In June 1979 the warning displays at various US command centres (including the Pentagon) began to show that incoming enemy missiles were being detected. Immediately preparations for retaliation began, including nuclear bomber crews starting their engines, the launch of Pacific Command's Airborne Command Post, and the readying of intercontinental missiles for deployment. Fortunately technicians realised that the numbers of incoming missiles being displayed were somewhat irrational, and operations were put on hold. The error was finally traced to a single faulty computer chip that was failing in a random fashion and causing false readings to be displayed at all the command posts.
Nuclear war is not as popular a doomsday scenario as it once was. Since the end of the Cold War many other extinction methods have become more prevalent in the media: ecological disaster, genetic weapons, the ever-present alien invasion force. What many do not realise, however, is that as time goes on the world’s nuclear capabilities are only increasing, and while the prospect of mutually assured destruction from any large-scale exchange acts as a formidable deterrent, there are many other factors outside the human which could result in disaster.
Resources
"Fourteen Days in October" by ThinkQuest Team 11046, online at ThinkQuest Library accessed 22/02/10.
"20 Mishaps that Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War" by Alan F. Phillips, online at Waging Peace accessed 22/02/10.
